ASSESSMENT OF SHOCK RESISTANCE OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF REGIONAL ECONOMY IN THE CONDITIONS OF IMPORT LOCALIZATION
DOI 10.12737/2073-0462-2024-154-160 УДК 332.05
Keywords:
shock resistance, agriculture, sanctions restrictions, region, import dependence, critical import, sectoral development, forecast model.Abstract
The neoclassical, cumulative, institutional models formed in the theory of regional economic growth are not capable of fully interpreting the processes of social and economic transformations in the conditions of external pressure on the national economic system. In this regard, in the space of scientific research, issues related to the need to develop new, adapted to modern conditions, methodological approaches to substantiating the prospects for sustainable development of economic dynamics at the industry and regional levels in the context of systemic transformations have increasingly begun to be raised. One of the most important areas that harmoniously fits into this research fairway is the theory of shock resistance. At the same time, if at the macro level its main postulates and methods are sufficiently covered in Russian and foreign scientific literature, then regarding the aspects of the meso- and industry level there are a number of methodological niches that require further development. Based on the developed methodological tools, commodity groups related to the category of critical imports for the region under study were identified. It was found that the product nomenclature "Live animals" belongs to this category. Relying on the methods of econometric analysis, the effect of the influence of this agricultural product on the sustainability of the agricultural sector of the economy and gross regional product of the Republic of Tatarstan was determined. It was found that within the framework of localization of supplies from abroad of the commodity group "Live animals", prerequisites are formed for a decrease in the growth dynamics in the "Agriculture" sector by 0.36%, which predetermines the potential for a slowdown in gross regional product to 0.361%. The obtained estimates form the basis for identifying and implementing the priorities of regional state policy in the field of sustainable development of the agricultural sector in the context of external pressure on the national economy of Russia.
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